You're assuming similar levels is variable rate mortgages to 2008, which isn't the case, and you're ignoring the historic structural labor shortage we're facing.We have too much money chasing too few goods. Rates are getting jacked up on order to try and curb inflation. Lots of people took out loans and purchased homes with variable rates due to record low borrowing cost, during the pandemic. Rates have gone up very fast, cutting into people's ability to spend, as their cost to maintain loans has gone up. Less disposable income means less bars, less tvs, less everything. When people spend less, economy shrinks. Economy shrinks unemployment grows.
And this isn't a surprise. We've known a structure labor shortage was coming. The 07 recession slowed it, pandemic accelerated it, but it was always coming.