Just had a call from my VW dealer (a proactive update, for a change). Not great news though, my July 2021 Golf Estate order is now showing build week 21 2023, so by her estimate, into stock with them around mid-July 2023. Incredible. Two full years from order.
I mentioned the hypothesis of the HK upgrade being the cause of the delay, but she said that they were primarily seeing the craziest delays with performance models (mine isn't), electric (ditto), and any hybrids, so I guess my 'mild hybrid' petrol could be the issue. She also said that they're seeing regular petrol and diesel models starting to get to more normal lead times, not quite the usual 3 months or whatever, but not a year +.
She also said that all orders are price protected so no matter what happens to list pricing, the price agreed won't change, and also the model would benefit from whatever the current spec was at build time, i.e. any new model year features etc. would be on it.
The wait continues...