Refunds are done first, so the IRS doesn't need to pay interest. For me, it only took 3 weeks e-filing, and I asked for a paper check to be mailed. So you'll probably get that first UNLESS the system does what it's supposed to do (so I'm told), and compare the income you claimed to the data they get from the people who gave you the 1099-R. In that case, you'll get a balance due notice, probably with a penalty. So it's a tough decision, wait for the letter or try to head it off. IIWM, I'd wait for the letter since the IRS is so screwed up. I mailed my 2019 weeks before the pandemic shut the IRS down, and it took 13 months to process because I owed money. But I'm only going by limited information, and I know how bad it is to talk to a live person and get accurate information. Even if you called and got an answer the policy could change the next day.